By The Athletic MLB Staff
Jul 28, 2024
By Andy McCullough, Tyler Kepner, and Sam Blum
The trade
Chicago Cubs get: 3B Isaac Paredes
Tampa Bay Rays get: 3B Christopher Morel, RHP Hunter Bigge, RHP Ty Johnson
Andy McCullough: Perhaps you’ve heard the news. The Rays are open for business. Tampa Bay has been shedding big-league talent at a rapid rate, taking advantage of a seller’s market at a time when several clubs with limited postseason potential are standing still. The team has already dealt away outfielder Randy Arozarena, starter Zach Eflin and reliever Jason Adam, after moving pitchers Aaron Civale and Phil Maton earlier this month. The return for Paredes, a 25-year-old All-Star third baseman who won’t be a free agent until after the 2027 season, looks a bit lighter than expected.
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Paredes was rated as the third-best player available onThe Athletic’s deadline big board. It appears the industry took a dimmer view of his future than our intrepid duo of Tim Britton and Aaron Gleeman. He is in the midst of a tremendous slump, batting only .127 in July. Tampa Bay must feel that Morel can replicate Paredes’ production, while appreciating the opportunity inherent in the acquisition of Bigge and Johnson.
Morel is having a down year offensively; his OPS+ has sagged from 119 in 2023 to 90 this season. He is a few months younger than Paredes and under team control for an additional season. He has excellent bat speed and good patience, which are qualities that suggest there is more in his offensive tank. Bigge wields a 98 mph fastball and a heavy slider that has allowed him to accumulate strikeouts as he crawled up the developmental ladder. He can join the big-league bullpen and help replace Adam. Johnson may also end up as a reliever.
The Cubs got better. There is no question about that. The Rays placed yet another wager on the capability of their scouting and development staff. They took an All-Star and swapped him for a player with less success at the same position. Will that, plus a pair of lottery-ticket arms, be a success? It’s the type of move Tampa Bay has made, time after time, in recent years. On the surface, it makes you scratch your head. But so did their decision to trade former All-Star outfielder Austin Meadows in 2022.
The player Tampa Bay got in return? He’s on the Cubs now.
Rays: B-
Cubs: B
Sam Blum: This is a bit of an odd trade for the Cubs, at least on the surface. They’re in last place in the National League Central, and have a 5.1 percent chance of making the playoffs in 2024, according to FanGraphs.
This trade, however, likely has little to do with either the Cubs’ or the Rays’ mostly-sealed fates this year. And it doesn’t mean that Chicago is a buyer, or that it’s making decisions with a playoff push in mind.
Cubs had not ruled out adding if move would help them in 2025 and beyond. Paredes comes with three additional years of control.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 28, 2024
The more legitimate concern is just how much power Paredes will have at Wrigley Field. He has famously never hit a home run to right field in any ballpark. Paredes has 16 homers this year, but Baseball Savant said that he would only have 11 homers this year if he played all his games in Chicago. That makes Wrigley one of the least compatible ballparks for his power.
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Paredes does have three additional years of control, and does offer more offensive value beyond his power numbers. He’s one of the best young third basem*n in the sport.
Christopher Morel still hasn’t hit arbitration, but he has regressed offensively in 2024. His 90 OPS+ is below league average, though there are some encouraging trend lines with his walks elevating and strikeouts decreasing.
Hunter Bigge is a very hard thrower, who could theoretically slot into the Rays bullpen immediately. His fastball averaged nearly 98 mph in his brief stint with the Cubs this year. Ty Johnson is also a hard thrower, but will be lower in the Rays system.
Basically, the Cubs are getting the best player. But the Rays are getting three guys, all of whom have potential. There’s no better team at capitalizing on potential than Tampa Bay, and it wouldn’t be shocking if the Rays believe Morel could exceed what they lost in Paredes.
Rays: B-
Cubs: B-
Tyler Kepner: The Cubs have underachieved this season, largely because they lack impact players in their lineup. Swapping Christopher Morel for Isaac Paredes is just the kind of move they needed. They’re both 25-year-old right-handed hitters with defensive versatility, but Paredes is much better at getting on base than Morel and makes a lot more contact. There are questions about how well Paredes’ power will play outside Tropicana Field, and the Rays rarely seem to lose a trade. But on the surface, the Cubs traded a guy for a dude: that is, an ordinary everyday player for an All-Star. Paredes comes with three-plus years of club control, and while the pitchers in the deal may develop for the Rays, neither ranked near the top of the Cubs’ prospect rankings.
Christopher Morel is having a down year, but the Rays clearly believe in his potential. (Brandon Sloter / Getty Images)
The Rays are all about future value, and while Morel is hitting just .199, he does have power and an extra year of club control. He’s also much more established than Paredes was when the Rays acquired him from Detroit for Austin Meadows, and that deal turned out very well. Johnson and Bigge have both averaged 12 strikeouts per nine innings in the minors, and Bigge — a 26-year-old Harvard product — has already graduated to the majors with the Cubs. Tampa Bay has a long history of identifying and developing useful big-league pitchers, so this deal could help with the kind of depth (say, spots 15 to 26 on a roster) that makes the team competitive year after year. Even so, the return seems a bit light for the Rays, given that they were selling high on Paredes.
Rays: B-
Cubs: B+
(Photo of Isaac Paredes: Julio Aguilar / Getty Images)
